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The first test of the price at 1.1640 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly up from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1640 coincided with the MACD indicator being in the overbought zone, prompting the implementation of Scenario 2 to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 20 pips.
Today's financial day in the Eurozone is expected to be quite eventful, although it does not foreshadow dizzying rises or sharp declines. The main focus will be on the first report coming in the first half of the day. The release of the Eurozone GDP growth report for the previous quarter is anticipated. Preliminary forecasts indicate relatively weak growth, which could signal a slowdown in economic activity in the region.
Alongside the GDP figures, employment data will also be published. Analysts believe that labor market dynamics will not show significant improvement either. This may raise concerns about the resilience of the European economy and its potential impact on the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Investors and analysts will need to closely examine these figures, as they could form the basis for future trading strategies and forecasts.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Today, I can buy the euro at around 1.1624 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1654. At 1.1654, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can expect the euro to rise only after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its rise from there.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1611, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1624 and 1.1654.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1611 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1585, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return only if reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from there.
Scenario 2: I also intend to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1624, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1611 and 1.1585.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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