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The price test at 1.3445 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.
Today, the data expected includes figures from the Halifax House Price Index, from which nothing good is anticipated, and later, there will be a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra. Although these two events seem isolated, they carry the potential to influence the British pound. The Halifax Index is typically one of the first indicators of the UK housing market's health, and if it shows further decline, it could exacerbate concerns about the economy's resilience to rising interest rates. Market expectations are already reflected in current quotes, but any deviations from forecasts, especially in a negative direction, could provoke a sharp reaction. Given the already challenging economic situation, where inflation remains high and growth is slowing, pessimistic housing market data could drive traders away from riskier assets toward safer havens.
The speech by Dhingra adds intrigue. Traders will analyze every word closely, trying to catch hints about future monetary policy. In light of the recent inflation data and signs of economic slowdown, Dhingra's tone may be more cautious, emphasizing the need for further tightening to combat inflation.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.3434 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3456 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3456, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). Strong growth for the pound today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3420, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be anticipated at the opposite levels of 1.3434 and 1.3456.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after it reaches 1.3420 (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3390, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pound will return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
Scenario 2: I also intend to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3434, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3420 and 1.3390.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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