10.06.202607:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 10

The dollar quickly regained ground yesterday amid further escalation of the geopolitical situation, which traders have recently become accustomed to, though similar military attacks have not been observed for a long time.

News that American forces launched strikes on Iran, shortly after President Donald Trump accused Tehran of downing an American military helicopter off the coast of Oman, led to a decline in risk assets and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The market's reaction was immediate: the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar, already under pressure from uncertainty, declined sharply, while the U.S. dollar, traditionally considered a safe haven in times of geopolitical tension, received new impetus for growth. Clearly, the tension in the Middle East, fueled by another round of escalation between Washington and Tehran, could not help but affect global economic stability.

Today, in the first half of the day, data on changes in Italy's industrial production, a key indicator of the country's economy, is expected to be released. These figures, published by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), could have a significant impact on the national currency's exchange rate and on trader sentiment.

Preliminary analyst expectations suggest that industrial production in Italy may have grown by a minimal 0.1% in April this year, amid mixed signals: on the one hand, persistently high inflation and rising energy costs could be putting pressure on production costs and slowing growth rates. On the other hand, steady demand from key trading partners, including those in the Eurozone, could support production volumes. However, only data that significantly deviates from forecasts will influence the euro's exchange rate.

The lack of significant macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom today means the GBP/USD pair lacks internal catalysts for a substantial recovery. The absence of fresh macroeconomic indicators leaves the British pound hanging, depriving it of the essential support needed to reinforce an upward move. The market will likely trade within a narrow range until new drivers emerge, with the primary focus shifting to external factors: the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, global market sentiment, and any statements from Trump regarding the Middle East.

The geopolitical situation in this region remains the key factor shaping sentiment in the currency market, thereby influencing the dynamics of major currency pairs. In such a situation, without local news capable of sustaining interest in the pound, the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue moving within the current trading range or show slight fluctuations, reacting only to external shocks.

If the data aligns with analysts' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below analysts' expectations, the Momentum strategy should be employed.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1556 may lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1579 and 1.1601;
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1529 may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1506 and 1.1480;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3400 may lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3435 and 1.3471;
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3370 may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3336 and 1.3307;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Buying on a breakout of 160.43 may lead to an increase in the dollar to around 160.67 and 160.91;
• Selling on a breakout of 160.24 may lead to a sell-off of the dollar to around 160.02 and 159.83;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1559, returning below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1530, returning to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3397, returning below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3361, returning to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7039, returning below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.7015, returning to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3960, returning below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3938, returning to this level;