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The GBP/USD currency pair showed mixed movements throughout Wednesday. The market could not decide how to react to the breakdown of negotiations between Iran and the US, the new attacks by Iran and the US on each other's positions in the Middle East, and the inflation report, which met expectations. As a result, we observed low volatility and a market reluctant to make hasty decisions. Although the negotiations between Tehran and Washington appear deadlocked, we have little doubt they will resume soon. At least for now, war in the Middle East has not resumed, despite Iran's attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Thus, there are no compelling reasons for a new risk-off flight to the dollar. However, there are also no compelling reasons to eliminate the US dollar. The market is in no hurry, simply waiting.
From a technical perspective, the downward trend continues, and the price is below the Ichimoku indicator lines. As we expected, the pair's growth on Friday was an exception, as the market has paid little attention to macroeconomic data in recent months. Geopolitics also does not support the dollar as strongly as before, but many factors will support the currency in 2026. On the daily timeframe, it is evident that the pair has been in a sideways range for 9 months.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, exactly one trading signal was formed — a buy signal. At the start of the US session, the price bounced from the 1.3369-1.3392 area and rose by a full 20 pips. Therefore, there was no loss on the long position, but there was no substantial profit either, as the price quickly returned to its original level.
COT reports on the British pound indicate that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross each other and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders dominating with... sales. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for riskier currencies is low.
In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which are clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. However, geopolitical factors currently take precedence, which have recently provided strong support to the dollar. As the conflict in the Middle East is not yet resolved, the US dollar may still see further growth. According to the latest COT report (dated June 2), the "Non-commercial" group closed 4,300 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 9,200 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its upward trend due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and in the relations between Iran and the US. The macroeconomic and fundamental background still has little influence on the pair's movements (with rare exceptions). We do not believe that, without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar will show strong growth, but the US currency's position is currently more advantageous than that of the British pound.
For June 11, we identify the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3437) and Kijun-sen line (1.3394) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.
On Thursday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, while only the Producer Price Index will be released in the US. After the publication of the May inflation report, this report has practically no significance, except for purely statistical purposes.
Today, traders may consider short positions targeting the 1.3301-1.3309 range if price consolidates below the 1.3369-1.3377 area. Long positions will be relevant in the event of a bounce from the 1.3369-1.3377 area, targeting the Senkou Span B line.
Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator shifted to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extremum levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts represents the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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