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"Buy the rumor, sell the fact." The move to raise the deposit rate from 2% to 2.25% at the June ECB meeting was already priced into EUR/USD quotes. The European Central Bank's failure to signal a continuation of the monetary tightening cycle allowed traders to lock in profits, leading to a decline in the main currency pair.
The ECB's rate hike was not only the first since 2023; it was also the first time it had responded to the oil crisis in the Middle East by tightening monetary policy. Christine Lagarde and her colleagues chose the lesser of two evils. They recalled the policy mistakes of 2008 and 2011, when monetary tightening proved premature, necessitating subsequent rate cuts.
In 2022-2023, the situation was quite different. The governing council delayed tightening monetary policy for too long, allowing consumer prices to soar above 10%. This time, the ECB decided not to take risks. It is better to do something than to do nothing.
The accompanying statement and updated forecasts did not impress EUR/USD enthusiasts. The ECB has made its future verdicts dependent on data. It presumably raised its inflation estimates while cutting growth forecasts for the eurozone. This paints a so-called stagflation scenario and provides grounds for a split within the ECB. "Doves" will fear recession, while "hawks" will warn of uncontrollable inflation. The lack of consensus renders the prospects for monetary tightening unclear.
As a result, the futures market's and Bloomberg experts' views on the next steps toward monetary tightening in July or September are now in doubt. The euro loses support and falls. Will this be enough to renew the downward movement in the EUR/USD pair?
I don't think so. Despite Donald Trump's threats to resume bombardments on Iran, Reuters insider information indicates a revival of negotiations. Points of contention include the unfreezing of Western currency reserves of the Islamic Republic, its nuclear program, and the armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Judging by the reluctance of oil prices to rise, the parties are gradually moving closer to each other.
A catalyst for a strengthening euro could be retail and institutional investors buying the dip in the S&P 500. The pullback in the broad stock index was driven by temporary factors—geopolitics, fears of stagflation, and cash reservations for the SpaceX IPO. There are hopes for positivity in all directions, which would encourage stock purchases.
Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD is testing the lower boundary of the fair value range of 1.1535-1.1680. A rebound with subsequent growth above 1.1560 and 1.1575 will provide a reason to buy. Conversely, a breakout will lead to a sell strategy.
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