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Despite yesterday's modest rebound, the biggest Wall Street banks are simultaneously downgrading their gold forecasts. UBS expects prices to fall to $4,000–$3,850 per ounce in the coming months, and Citi yesterday cut its three?month target to $4,000 from $4,300. The consensus is clustering around a single level — and that is telling.
The logic behind the short-term pessimism is clear. If a peace agreement between the US and Iran is signed in the coming days — and Trump has said as much — oil will fall, inflation expectations will ease, and bets on Fed rate hikes will be pushed further out. All of this relieves pressure on gold, but the metal is already trading below its 200-day moving average, which sparks algorithmic selling — the technical factor amplifying the fundamental one.
UBS, however, remains bullish on a one?year horizon — a fundamental difference from the short-term view. The long-term thesis rests on three pillars: Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year as inflationary pressures abate, a consequent weakening of the dollar, and continued purchases by global central banks. The last factor is perhaps the most durable: the People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 19 consecutive months, and this structural demand will not disappear with shifts in the geopolitical backdrop.
Importantly, the divergence between big banks' short- and long-term views is a signal to traders about the character of the move ahead. A pullback to $4,000–$3,850 is quite possible absent a peace deal with Iran, but it would create an entry point for those betting on the longer-term scenario of monetary easing and reserve diversification by central banks.
As for the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to take out near-term resistance at $4,249. That would allow a target of $4,304, above which a breakout would be rather difficult. The final target sits around $4,372. If gold falls, bears will try to seize control of $4,186. If they succeed, a breakdown of that range would deal a heavy blow to bullish positions and push gold down to $4,124, with the potential to reach $4,062.
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