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The Bank of England will hold its next monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The markets are firmly convinced that the rate will remain at 3.75%, and the main focus will be on the signals the BoE transmits regarding key macroeconomic indicators, primarily inflation.
The UK economy is in quite a challenging position. Despite positive data on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), April's GDP showed negative dynamics (-0.1%). Consumer inflation expectations have reached 4%, and it remains unclear how the economy will cope with a potential rate hike if necessary. Industrial production stagnated in April (zero growth), while the annual figure deteriorated to -0.2%.
Two important reports on the labor market and inflation will be published ahead of the meeting. Although they are unlikely to affect the current decision, they will help members of the Monetary Policy Committee adjust their views on the future path of interest rates.
This trajectory is currently the main intrigue. The BoE needs to balance rising inflation and an economic slowdown, a task that requires fundamentally opposing decisions. Wage growth in the UK remains high, inflation is still above target, and GDP growth has slowed.
In the current situation, the prospects for the British pound remain extremely uncertain. Several significant factors will converge in a very short period, and each of them has the potential to significantly impact its quotes.
The net short position for GBP increased by $1 billion over the reporting week, reaching -$5.4 billion, with speculative positioning being bearish. The calculated price is below the long-term average but lacks direction.
The GBP/USD pair rose to the resistance zone of 1.3440/50, which it could not break through, as we anticipated in the previous review. If the pound receives support from the Federal Reserve's decision and its own macroeconomic data over the next two days, it may attempt a new breakout of this zone, aiming to reach 1.3508. However, further growth seems unlikely due to fundamental factors. Otherwise, a decline of the pound below the nearest support zone of 1.3299/3305 is virtually inevitable.
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