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The price test at 1.1591 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 1.1547.
Yesterday's decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was a significant event for global financial markets. The unanimous decision to maintain the key interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range was expected; however, the committee's emphasis on a likely rate hike by the end of the year acted as a catalyst for significant market moves. This hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve aimed at curbing persistently rising inflation did not go unnoticed. Many traders interpreted the Fed's signal as confirmation of a strengthening dollar, prompting active purchases of the U.S. currency. This resulted in a sharp strengthening of the dollar against most global currencies, including the euro.
Today, the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain under pressure in the first half of the day. The anticipated speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel could either support the dollar or strengthen the euro, depending on how hawkish his rhetoric is regarding inflation and future monetary policy measures. Meanwhile, the publication of the European Central Bank's current account balance data may provide a more accurate assessment of the Eurozone's external trade; however, given the overall uncertainty, its impact on the euro exchange rate is likely to be limited.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today at a price around 1.1531 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1561. At 1.1561, I intend to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expectations for the euro to rise today can only be supported by good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1510 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1531 and 1.1561.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1510 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1485, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pair today will only return if very weak data are released. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1531 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1510 and 1.1485.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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