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Demand for the U.S. dollar has eased somewhat ahead of the release of important U.S. inflation data. Against this backdrop, the euro, the pound, and other risk-sensitive assets have an opportunity to stage a modest upward correction.
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar also lost some ground in the currency market after U.S. housing market data came in weaker than economists had expected. New home sales in the United States declined, falling short of forecasts. According to the latest figures, sales dropped by 7.3% compared with the previous month. This decline came as an unpleasant surprise to traders, who had anticipated more stable performance or even a slight increase in the new-home segment.
The decline in new home sales may be attributed to several factors. One of the key reasons is likely the persistently high cost of construction and, consequently, elevated prices for newly built homes. In addition, rising mortgage interest rates continue to reduce housing affordability for potential buyers.
The market reacted immediately. The U.S. dollar weakened against major world currencies, including the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound.
Today's calendar is not expected to be packed with major macroeconomic events. During the first half of the day, attention will focus on Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Index, a leading indicator of consumers' willingness to spend. This directly affects consumer spending and, consequently, GDP growth. Readings above forecasts typically signal consumer optimism and may support the euro, while weaker-than-expected figures could raise concerns about the outlook for the German economy.
At the same time, market participants are awaiting the release of the European Central Bank's Economic Bulletin. This document typically contains a detailed analysis of current economic conditions in the euro area, assessments of risks, and possible directions for future monetary policy. The ECB bulletin provides deeper insight into the central bank's views on inflation trends, growth prospects, and financial system stability.
As for the British pound, financial markets will be watching the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which is set to publish its Retail Sales report. This indicator is one of the key gauges of the health of the country's consumer sector and, by extension, the broader economy. Based on a survey of many retailers, the CBI report provides information on sales expectations, actual sales volumes, and overall industry sentiment. CBI data are often viewed as a leading indicator because they reflect more recent trends than official statistics, which are released with a delay.
Retail sales expectations can directly impact the value of the British pound. Positive results that exceed forecasts generally support the currency, while weak figures may fuel concerns about slowing economic activity and lead to weakness in the pound.
If the data match economists' expectations, it is preferable to rely on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the figures come in significantly above or below expectations, a Momentum strategy is likely the better choice.
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