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The price test at 1.1335 coincided with the MACD indicator moving sharply lower from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.
The U.S. dollar dropped against the euro after U.S. housing market data came in worse than economists' forecasts. This event had a noticeable impact on traders' sentiments, who are closely monitoring indicators of the U.S. economy's state. Data showing a slowdown in activity in one of the key sectors is traditionally perceived as a negative signal for the dollar.
Today, in the first half of the day, the GfK consumer climate index for Germany is expected, as is the European Central Bank's economic bulletin. These reports are important for assessing the current state and prospects of the European economy, and market participants will closely watch them.
The GfK consumer climate index is a key indicator reflecting consumer sentiment and their willingness to make large purchases. An improvement in this index may indicate a rise in public confidence about the future, which, in turn, positively impacts consumer demand and, consequently, economic growth, supporting the euro. Conversely, a decline in the index could indicate consumer fears about inflation, unemployment, or geopolitical instability, which would slow economic activity.
The ECB's economic bulletin provides a more comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the Eurozone. In it, the central bank is likely to share its assessments of inflation risks, economic growth prospects, and possible further steps in monetary policy. If signs of more aggressive interest rate hikes emerge, the euro could respond positively.
For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros upon reaching the entry point in the area of 1.1375 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 1.1402. At 1.1402, I intend to exit the market and sell the euro immediately on a pullback (expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point). We can only anticipate an increase in the euro after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests at 1.1355, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.1375 and 1.1402.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1355 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1330, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return in the event of very weak reports. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests at 1.1375, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to opposing levels of 1.1355 and 1.1330.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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