25.06.202610:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: analysis and outlook. Gold attracting sellers despite modest weakening of US dollar

Gold (XAU/USD) maintains bearish momentum for the third day in a row (and the sixth in seven), remaining below the psychologically important $4,000 level on Thursday. The metal is trading near its Wednesday lows — the weakest since November 2025 — as market participants await the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. This key inflation gauge can set the direction of Fed policy and, accordingly, affect the price of non-yielding gold.

At the same time, inflation fears have eased somewhat after a notable fall in crude oil prices following the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil was further pressured by a temporary (60-day) easing of sanctions that allows the production, transport as well as sale of Iranian oil, petroleum products, and petrochemicals. As a result, oil prices have retraced to levels seen before the US?Iran conflict.

That reduces price pressures at the early stages of production and distribution chains that feed into consumer inflation, prompting traders to revise expectations for further Fed tightening.

The decline in US Treasury yields caused by these factors limits the dollar's potential strength but has not provided meaningful support for gold. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market still prices in more than an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike by the end of the year, which restrains possible dollar weakness. Meanwhile, the earlier sell-off in tech stocks has worsened overall market sentiment and supports demand for the dollar as a safe?haven asset.

Taken together, these factors increase the likelihood of further downside for the precious metal in the near term, interrupted by corrective rallies which will likely be used to open new short positions and remain limited in scope. Additional confirmation of this bearish scenario is the consolidation below $4,000, given recent failed attempts to clear the 200-day EMA. Oscillators are negative, indicating that the bears have the upper hand, but the RSI is close to oversold, signaling a slowdown in downward momentum. Therefore, before opening new short positions, it is prudent to wait for a short-term consolidation or a modest pullback.