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The EUR/USD currency pair attempted to continue its downward trend on Thursday, but it was unsuccessful. Interestingly, Thursday was expected to see a new strengthening of the U.S. dollar, as the most important U.S. GDP report for the first quarter came in better than expected. However, the market is not understandable by logic at this moment. For an entire week, the American currency had been actively rising without any solid reasons (except for last Wednesday and the Federal Reserve meeting), and when reasons appeared, the growth stopped. Therefore, we again draw traders' attention to the fact that there is very little logic in market movements right now. We do not believe that the dollar deserved such a strong strengthening over the past week. Moreover, it contradicts both geopolitical factors and fundamentals. Thus, we are still waiting for a new upward trend on the hourly timeframe, which will be part of the trend on higher timeframes. Or, at least, a reasonable and logical movement.
Technically, the downward trend continues, but while last Wednesday's dollar rise was justified, the subsequent days were not. Nevertheless, the trend remains downward, so until it ends, short positions are a priority. A new trend line cannot be formed yet, as there is no second clearly defined extreme.
On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were generated on Thursday, none of which yielded profits for traders. The pair changed direction throughout the day, trying to determine the trend. But it never did. Therefore, traders could have acted on the first two signals, while all subsequent ones should have been ignored, as they were formed near the same level of 1.1362.
The latest COT report is dated June 9. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been getting rid of the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar acted as a "reserve currency" for a while. However, this process may have already concluded.
We still do not see any fundamental factors for the strengthening of the European currency; instead, there remain sufficient factors for the decline of the American one. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when this factor reaches its "expiry date," everything will revert to the norm. And it may have already expired. In the long term, the euro may fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. And over the past few months, the pair has not come too close to this line.
The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs for the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 15,900, while the number of shorts increased by 19,000. Consequently, the net position dropped by 34,900 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, a strong, unjustified downward trend continues to develop. The situation in the Middle East has been resolved; therefore, the dollar can no longer rely on geopolitical support. The Fed provided strong support to the U.S. currency last Wednesday, but for unclear reasons, the decline continues to this day. The market continues to buy dollars for no reason, ignoring all the factors in favor of the euro.
For June 26, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1444, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1520) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1403). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to place stop-loss orders at breakeven if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.
On Friday, the macroeconomic event calendar for the European Union is empty, while the U.S. will release a secondary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. At this time, the market cannot decide whether to continue selling the pair for no apparent reason. But a correction has long been overdue.
Today, traders may consider short positions if the price bounces off the Kijun-sen line. Long positions can be opened with targets of 1.1444 and the Senkou Span B line if the pair consolidates above the critical line.
Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines, near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator, transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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