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The price test at 1.3224 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test of 1.3224 triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling the pound, resulting in a decline of about 20 points.
In the first half of the day, the pound reacted with a decline to news that the UK mortgage market showed a sharp slowdown. The drop in the number of issued mortgages and in financing volumes indicates growing caution from both borrowers and lenders. The clearest signal is the number of new mortgage approvals, which is considered a leading indicator of future lending. In May, this figure fell to 56,200, compared to an average of 63,300 over the past six months. This trend inevitably affects real estate prices, which are expected to continue correcting downward after a period of strong growth. The impact on the British pound is also evident. Lower mortgage market activity and the resulting slowdown in economic activity make UK assets less attractive to foreign investors.
In the second half of the day, there are no U.S. economic data releases, so the dollar is unlikely to see strong demand. The absence of key economic reports means the market will lack new catalysts, which will likely lead to consolidation or even a slight weakening of the U.S. currency as traders look for more active markets elsewhere.
For my intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound when the entry point at 1.3221 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting growth toward 1.3255 (thick green line). At 1.3255, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move back. A strong rally in the pound today is unlikely.
Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.
Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3201 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.3221 and 1.3255 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a breakdown below 1.3201 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline. The key target is 1.3168, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure may return if there are hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve.
Important: Before selling, ensure that MACD is below the zero line and has just started moving lower.
Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3221 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.3201 and 1.3168 can be expected.
Chart Explanation
Important Notice
Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental data releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you use large position sizes without proper money management.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one described above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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