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The price test at 1.1410 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy euros. As a result, the pair moved up by approximately 20 pips.
Positive developments in the Middle East and in US-Iran relations have again sparked investors' interest in risk assets, which, in turn, has led to a decline in the value of the US dollar. The improvement in the geopolitical situation has helped reduce the uncertainty that previously weighed negatively on global markets—especially after the latest military exchanges between the US and Iran. However, it should be remembered that the situation in the Middle East remains volatile. Any changes in US-Iran relations or developments in the conflict could instantly alter market sentiment. Therefore, despite the positive news, traders need to remain vigilant and closely monitor developments.
Next, all eyes are on the upcoming macroeconomic data regarding the labor market in Germany and inflation indicators for Germany and Italy. Traders will closely watch for any deviations from forecasts. A decrease in the unemployment rate, especially if it proves more significant than expected, would serve as a powerful signal of the resilience of the German economy. This, in turn, can be interpreted as a sign of healthy domestic demand, which is traditionally one of the key factors supporting the euro's value.
Equally important will be the publication of the consumer price indices for both Germany and Italy. High inflation, exceeding expectations, may raise concerns for the European Central Bank about price stability. In response, markets might begin to price in potential ECB action to tighten monetary policy, which is typically a positive factor for the national currency.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: You can buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1410 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1455. At 1.1455, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can only count on the euro's growth after good Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1385 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.1410 and 1.1455.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1385 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1338, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair today will only return if there is poor performance. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1410 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.1385 and 1.1338.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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