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The price test at 162.42 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying dollars. As a result, the pair moved upward to the target level of 162.70.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen amid the release of U.S. consumer confidence data for June. The good rise in the indicator was due to the decrease in gasoline prices, which, in turn, offset concerns about the state of the labor market. According to information published on Tuesday, the Conference Board's consumer sentiment index rose 0.6 points to 91.2.
Today, Japan's Deputy Minister of Finance, Atsushi Mimura, stated that Japan's currency intervention two months ago to support the yen was successful. This statement came amid ongoing pressure on the Japanese currency, which recently reached a new 40-year low against the dollar. The fall of the yen poses serious risks for the Japanese economy, which heavily depends on the import of energy resources and a significant part of food products. Rising import costs could accelerate inflation, which would erode the purchasing power of the population and undermine overall economic growth.
Mimura, speaking to reporters, tried to reassure the public that the government is closely monitoring the situation and taking necessary measures. He emphasized the frequency of his contacts with colleagues in Washington, stating that he communicates with his American counterparts far more often than most people likely realize. This hint at active coordination with the U.S. and other major economies may indicate preparations for another intervention by the central bank in the national currency's exchange rate.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 162.82 (green line on the chart), with the goal of reaching 163.08 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 163.08, I plan to close my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and serious drawdowns of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 162.52, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposing levels of 162.82 and 163.08 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level 162.65 (red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 162.40, where I plan to exit my shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment, with just any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 162.82, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposing levels of 162.65 and 162.40 can be expected.
Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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