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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3298 and rose to the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3382. This was followed by a pullback from 1.3382 and another reaction from 1.3335. As of Friday morning, the upward movement continues toward 1.3382. A new rejection from this level would again favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward 1.3335 and 1.3298. A consolidation of the British pound above 1.3382 would increase the probability of continued growth toward the resistance level at 1.3454–1.3457.
The wave structure has shifted to a bullish outlook within just the last few hours. The most recent completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high and continues to develop. Thus, bulls have finally taken control, although I expected this about 2–3 weeks earlier. It is now important not to lose momentum. The British pound is rising at a solid pace.
The fundamental background on Thursday supported bullish sentiment in the market, although the U.S. unemployment report could have triggered bearish pressure. Despite the fact that far fewer jobs were created over the past three months than expected, it is the unemployment rate that reflects the overall state of the labor market. However, traders considered the Nonfarm Payrolls report more important, which explains the decline in the U.S. currency. Today is a holiday in the United States, as tomorrow is July 4, Independence Day. Trading activity may decrease, but the British pound has made solid progress this week. I believe the bearish advance has been halted. On the daily chart, the pound has been rising for seven consecutive days, which provides a strong foundation for a new bullish trend. Following yesterday's U.S. labor market data, the probability of FOMC monetary tightening has decreased, so the dollar may face difficulties in the near term.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3159, reversed in favor of the British pound, and rose to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3348. A consolidation above 1.3348 would allow traders to expect further growth toward the next retracement level at 50.0% (1.3409). A rejection from 1.3409 would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward 1.3277. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Sentiment among Non-commercial traders became more bearish over the last reporting week. Long positions held by speculators decreased by 1,271, while Short positions increased by 32,863. The current gap between Long and Short positions is approximately 41,000 versus 147,000. In recent months, bears have dominated the market; however, unlike before, this dominance now raises questions due to significant changes in the fundamental background. The bears currently hold more than a threefold advantage.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the British pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic data, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has shifted toward a peace-oriented outlook, but negotiations between Iran and the United States may be long and complex, and there is no guarantee they will result in a nuclear agreement.
The July 3 calendar includes one event. However, Andrew Bailey has already spoken this week, so this release is not considered important. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be extremely weak or absent.
Short positions are possible today on a rejection from 1.3382 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3335 and 1.3298. Long positions are possible on a consolidation above 1.3382, with a target level of 1.3454–1.3457.
Fibonacci grids are built using 1.3457–1.3139 on the hourly chart and 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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