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The EUR/USD currency pair showed a slight decline during Tuesday's trading, but it was sufficient to breach the ascending trend line. Consequently, the latest upward trend may prove to be corrective, while the two-month downward trend remains relevant. There were virtually no significant events happening yesterday in the world, Eurozone, or the U.S. Yes, a report on industrial production was released in Germany, and it even showed a higher value than anticipated. However, it is unlikely that the market can be stirred by industrial production at this time. In the U.S., the weekly ADP report was released, which is typically ignored by traders even in its monthly variation. Thus, there was nothing noteworthy to react to yesterday, resulting in a typical technical movement sufficient to breach the trend line. The market continues to focus solely on the U.S. dollar, despite the geopolitical, fundamental, and macroeconomic backdrop.
In the 5-minute timeframe, only one trading signal was formed on Tuesday, while the price remained sideways for most of the day. The overall volatility for the day was less than 40 pips. During the American trading session, the price consolidated below the 1.1420-1.1432 range, allowing novice traders to open short positions. These positions should be carried over to today, as there are simply no other options.
On the hourly timeframe, the two-month downward trend remains. With the deal between Iran and the U.S. now signed, the market has one less reason to buy the American currency. However, the market pays no attention to this fact and generally ignores most factors in favor of the euro. Therefore, the recent strengthening of the dollar lacks clear and understandable reasons. The correction could conclude at any moment.
On Wednesday, novice traders may consider opening short positions targeting 1.1354-1.1363 if the price bounces from the 1.1420-1.1432 area. Long positions can be maintained with a target of 1.1527-1.1531 if the pair overcomes the 1.1420-1.1432 area.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can take place at levels 1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1420-1.1432, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, and 1.1830-1.1837. On Wednesday, there are no significant events scheduled in the Eurozone, while in the U.S., the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting will be published, which we consider a secondary, formal event. The market may react only by purchasing dollars if it sees what it wants to see.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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