Zůstat 
Obchodní podmínky
Nástroje
The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight decline on Wednesday amid escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. However, by the second half of the day, the rise of the U.S. dollar ceased, clearly demonstrating the market's level of belief in any events occurring in the Middle East. In simple terms, the new reciprocal strikes between Iran and the U.S. mean nothing significant. They certainly do not indicate that negotiations have concluded or that both sides are returning to war. Similarly, any ceasefires, agreements, memoranda, and truce arrangements do not signify the end of the conflict. Therefore, the market effectively ignored this event.
Unfortunately, the new escalation in the Middle East may have more serious consequences for the world this time. Donald Trump announced on Wednesday morning that the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil would come to an end. In response, oil prices immediately surged by 8-9% and threaten to plunge into another steep decline, but with a positive sign.
What is dangerous about this new escalation in the Middle East? It is the battle for oil. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed again, it could push oil prices back into the $100-$120 per barrel range. If Iran can no longer sell oil due to U.S. sanctions, this could also drive the price per barrel to the $100-$120 range. Such prices for "black gold" had previously led to a sharp increase in inflation in the U.S.
What's next? Hopes for a gradual slowdown in inflation in the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S. will be eradicated. If prices exceed $100 again, inflation will continue to accelerate worldwide. Central banks will have no choice but to raise key rates. Since the market reacts exclusively to the Federal Reserbe's monetary policy tightening, the rise of the U.S. dollar may continue.
There is an even more dangerous scenario. Iran could not only close the Strait of Hormuz but also, through Yemen, blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, while the U.S. reinstates blockades on Iranian ports. In this case, oil prices could reach $150 per barrel, and it's terrifying to imagine how inflation would soar. It is crucial for Tehran and Washington to return to the negotiating table in the coming days.
However, to be honest, each new escalation in the Middle East reassures us that peace is, in principle, impossible. Consider how long both sides will continue to fire upon each other under the guise of peace negotiations that show no progress at all. Sooner or later, one side will simply abandon diplomacy, and this conflict can be officially considered renewed. Iran understands that Donald Trump risks losing elections in Congress, and perhaps this is precisely what he aims for. If Trump loses sole power in the country, it will mean that all his decisions will need to be coordinated with the Democrats. And the Democrats do not want to go to war with Iran and will block any new attempts to unleash a slaughter.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 68 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Thus, on Thursday, July 9, we expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3296 and 1.3432. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice and formed two bullish divergences, which warn of a possible completion of the downward trend.
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the US dollar. The year 2026 is shaping up to be super positive for the dollar due to geopolitics and, more recently, the Fed's readiness to raise the key rate. However, over the weekly timeframe, a flat range is maintained between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend. Long positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3489 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price below the moving average line allows for trading downward with a target of 1.3245.
Díky analytickým přehledům společnosti InstaForex získáte plné povědomi o tržních trendech! Jako zákazníkovi společnosti InstaForex je Vám k dispozici velký počet bezplatných služeb umožňujících efektivní obchodování.
