09.07.202613:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on July 9 (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 162.28 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of 162.28 led to the implementation of the buying scenario for the dollar, which resulted in a rise of 20 points for the pair.

The key event of the day is expected to be the speech from John Williams from the FOMC. The market will be listening closely to see if he confirms the regulator's readiness to raise rates or tries to soften the impression left by yesterday's minutes. In recent weeks, policymakers have taken a more cautious stance, but in light of the new conflict in the Middle East, the inclination may swing back toward a more hawkish agenda. This would definitely harm the Japanese yen and support the dollar with another round of growth. If this occurs, the issue of currency intervention will intensify, as a sharp rise in the pair increases the likelihood of the Bank of Japan entering the market to defend the national currency, which officials have resorted to during periods of its rapid weakening. A soft tone from Williams, on the other hand, would ease this pressure and rekindle interest in the yen as a safe-haven asset.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 162.57 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth at 162.98 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 162.98, I will exit the buys and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is possible to anticipate a rise in the pair today, but it is quite relative. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 162.36 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise towards the opposing levels of 162.574 and 162.98 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking the level of 162.36 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 162.04, where I will exit the sales and also open immediate buys in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today with the intervention from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 162.57 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline towards the opposing levels of 162.36 and 162.04 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line represents the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line is the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line is the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line is the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make very cautious decisions regarding market entry. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.