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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the US benchmark grade — has paused at the 9-day EMA amid mixed statements from Washington and Tehran. At the moment, the price is trading around $71.50, trying to hold the level as markets await further news from the Middle East crisis.
Geopolitical tension rose again this week after US forces carried out retaliatory strikes on Iran in response to Tehran's attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran replied by striking facilities linked to US forces in Bahrain and Kuwait. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced the end of an existing truce, which pushed oil prices higher in the first half of the week.
Market fears began to ease, however, after Trump said on Thursday that Iran had called on the US for diplomatic talks to de-escalate the conflict. A US administration official also confirmed adherence to a memorandum of understanding with Iran.
These factors, combined with OPEC+'s decision to further increase target production levels, could constrain upside in oil prices and make traders more cautious about committing to buys.
Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected build in crude stocks for the week ended July 3 — the first increase in 11 weeks. Commercial inventories rose by 2.998 million barrels, well above analysts' expectations, adding further downward pressure on oil prices.
From a technical perspective, oil is attempting to stay above the 9-day EMA, but the odds favor a drop as momentum oscillators sit in negative territory, confirming the bears' edge. The next support is the round level of $69.00, followed by July's low near $66.90.
On the upside, the 200-day SMA is the key resistance; a sustained move above it would give bulls a chance to push prices higher.
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