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EUR/USD continues to trade slightly above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1409. As a result, buyers retain the potential to extend the upward move toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514. A sustained move below 1.1409 would favor the US dollar and open the way for a moderate decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1290. Trading activity has remained subdued this week.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish despite two weeks of buying pressure. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the current upward wave has yet to exceed the previous high and is still developing. The geopolitical backdrop has improved considerably in recent weeks, as military activity in the Middle East has at least paused, and Iran and the United States have signed a preliminary agreement. However, it will only be possible to conclude that the bearish trend has ended if the pair breaks above 1.1620 or if two consecutive bullish waves are formed.
The fundamental backdrop on Thursday was extremely light. Germany's trade balance report, released in the morning, significantly exceeded market expectations. Later in the day, the United States published initial jobless claims and existing home sales data. The first report was broadly in line with forecasts, while the second came in weaker than expected. Thus, two of the three economic releases supported the euro and bullish sentiment. However, given the relatively low importance of these reports, the market reaction was minimal.
Throughout the day, no new statements were made by either Tehran or Washington regarding the conflict in the Middle East or the negotiations that were expected to resume on July 11. Therefore, it remains unclear whether a new round of talks between the US and Iranian delegations will take place tomorrow or whether negotiations have been postponed indefinitely. In any case, the market remains calm. The absence of negotiations does not necessarily imply a resumption of the conflict. Likewise, new strikes near the Strait of Hormuz do not automatically signal a return to full-scale hostilities, as recent developments have shown. For now, sellers have little reason to regain control.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has secured a close above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1411, allowing traders to anticipate further gains toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514. A renewed close below 1.1411 would increase the likelihood of a decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1291. No developing divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators. The descending trend channel remains intact.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 11,674 Long positions and opened 17,385 Short positions. Over the seven weeks spanning February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared amid the conflict involving Iran. During the past fourteen weeks, positioning has gradually become more balanced following the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. Speculative traders currently hold approximately 235,000 Long positions and 235,000 Short positions.
From a longer-term perspective, large market participants continue to favor the euro. Naturally, global developments—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market remains focused on developments in the Middle East, where military operations have paused and negotiations have begun, potentially paving the way for a lasting peace agreement. However, the market is still largely ignoring the improvement in the geopolitical environment, along with several other factors that continue to support the euro.
Economic Calendar for the Eurozone and the United States
The economic calendar for July 10 contains only one release, which can hardly be considered significant. Therefore, macroeconomic data is once again unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips
Long positions became valid after the pair secured a close above 1.1409 on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1514. These positions may continue to be held today. Short positions may be considered if the pair closes below 1.1409 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1290. However, traders should keep in mind that current market movements remain exceptionally weak.
The Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.
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