13.07.202613:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders — July 13th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 162.15 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points, narrowly missing the 162.39 target level.

The dollar quickly gave back the gains it had taken from the market in the morning. As the initial risk aversion faded, safe-haven demand weakened, and the U.S. currency began declining against risk-sensitive assets. With no immediate signs of further escalation, the market shifted back toward higher-yielding instruments, eroding the dollar's early advantage.

The key events for the U.S. session will be speeches by FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, while no other significant U.S. economic data is scheduled. The remarks from Federal Reserve officials are important because they provide insight into the central bank's policy outlook and influence market expectations regarding interest rates. In the absence of economic data, the impact of their comments is likely to be even greater.

The Japanese yen will react to these speeches primarily through changes in yield differentials. A hawkish tone from Bowman and Waller could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and drive USD/JPY upward by widening the interest rate gap with Japan. However, this could also revive concerns about currency intervention, as an excessively rapid rise in the pair increases the likelihood of the Bank of Japan entering the market to support the national currency, as authorities have done previously during periods of sharp yen depreciation. Conversely, more dovish remarks would reduce this pressure and restore demand for the yen.

Regarding my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry level around 162.15 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 162.39 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 162.39, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move lower from this level.

A rise in the pair today is possible, although the upward potential appears relatively limited.

Important: Before opening a buy position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 161.97 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal. The upward targets would be 162.15 and 162.39.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 161.97 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.73, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from this level.

Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the central bank intervenes.

Important: Before opening a sell position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 162.15 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal. The downward targets would be 161.97 and 161.73.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line — entry level for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line — expected price level for placing a Take Profit order or manually securing profits, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry level for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line — expected price level for placing a Take Profit order or manually securing profits, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during major news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.