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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3382 on Wednesday, reversed in favor of the pound, and advanced toward the 1.3526–1.3543 resistance level. A rebound from this zone on Thursday would favor the U.S. dollar and could trigger a decline toward the 1.3454–1.3457 support level. A firm consolidation above the 1.3526–1.3543 level would signal the potential for further gains toward the next resistance level at 1.3632–1.3641.
The wave structure remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave exceeded the previous high. This indicates that buyers remain in control. In my view, the bearish impulse that dominated in 2026 has already run its course, and only geopolitical developments could prevent the bulls from extending their advance. Even so, geopolitical risks are likely to trigger only a corrective pullback at this stage.
Wednesday's fundamental backdrop supported further gains by the bulls, and they took full advantage of it. Although the Producer Price Index (PPI) is not the most influential economic indicator, it confirmed that the disinflationary process in the United States has begun. Easing inflation significantly reduces the likelihood of an aggressive monetary policy stance by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Therefore, while the decline in the U.S. dollar may appear excessive, it is also fundamentally justified.
Earlier today, the United Kingdom released its first and last economic reports of the week. UK GDP rose by 0.1% in May, in line with expectations, while industrial production declined by 0.5% month-on-month, a weaker result than traders had anticipated. Nevertheless, the pound came under no meaningful market pressure following the data. Market participants remain primarily focused on the U.S. dollar and the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The pound continues to recover because the market had previously ignored the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and also overlooked the possibility of tighter monetary policy by the Bank of England, which may also have to respond to elevated inflation.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3348, reversed in favor of the pound, and advanced toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3538 following the formation of bullish divergences on the RSI and CCI indicators. Today, a rebound from 1.3538 could lead to a moderate decline toward 1.3482, while a firm break and consolidation above this level would open the way for further growth toward the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3657. No new developing divergences are currently observed.
Sentiment among the Non-commercial group became less bearish during the latest reporting week but remains bearish overall. The number of Long positions held by speculative traders increased by 7,415, while the number of Short positions declined by 6,829. The overall positioning now stands at approximately 45,000 Long positions versus 132,000 Short positions. Bears have dominated the market in recent months. However, whereas this dominance was previously well supported, it has become more questionable as the fundamental backdrop has changed significantly. Even so, bearish positions still outnumber bullish ones by nearly three to one.
I still do not believe in the continuation of a long-term bearish trend for the pound. In the near term, however, market direction will depend less on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy than on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. Over recent weeks, markets have shifted toward expectations of a peaceful resolution, but negotiations between Iran and the United States could prove lengthy and difficult. There is also no guarantee that they will ultimately result in a nuclear agreement.
United States
The economic calendar for July 16 contains only two releases, neither of which is expected to have a significant impact. As a result, the influence of macroeconomic data on market sentiment is likely to remain limited on Thursday and will be confined to the second half of the day.
Short positions may be considered if the pair rebounds from the 1.3526–1.3543 resistance level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3454–1.3457. Long positions were previously valid after a close above and a subsequent rebound from 1.3382, targeting 1.3454–1.3457 and 1.3526–1.3543. Both targets have been reached. New long positions may be considered following a firm consolidation above the 1.3526–1.3543 resistance level, targeting 1.3632–1.3641.
Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.3457 to 1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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