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Bitcoin and Ethereum are going on with their correction after another crash. Over the past month and a half, Ethereum and Bitcoin have managed a modest recovery, but there are still no signs that the downtrend that began last year has ended. The fundamental backdrop remains weak for the crypto market, mainly expressed in low spot demand, capital flowing into the artificial intelligence sector, and the Fed's commitment to bring inflation down to 2%, which implies, at minimum, the maintenance of tight monetary policy. Thus, we still see no grounds for a sustained rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Meanwhile, it has become known that one of the oldest crypto exchanges, BitMEX, will completely cease operations on September 23. New client accounts have already stopped being opened. The company explained its decision by citing the changed crypto market environment and a revision of its business strategy. Interestingly, the exchange had operated since 2014 and was the first to launch trading in Bitcoin derivatives with leverage up to 100x. Reportedly, from August 26, already-registered users will no longer be able to open new positions, only close and reduce existing ones. Until September 23, the exchange will be forcibly closing traders' positions. The company also warned that withdrawals may be delayed due to a sharp increase in withdrawal requests.
Although there is no talk of bankruptcy, we regard the exchange's closure as effectively that. If one of the largest exchanges were still profitable, it would not be ceasing operations. Therefore, not everything is well in crypto-land. Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for almost a year, and traders' and investors' interest is increasingly flowing into the AI sector. Even Strategy was forced to start selling Bitcoin to address liquidity problems. Thus, despite promises from Michael Saylor and other crypto enthusiasts, market interest in "digital gold" continues to decline. And Bitcoin itself still has not become an international means of payment, a replacement for fiat money, or a hedge against inflation.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), although this level has, in essence, already been worked through. We do not believe the downtrend will end there. The latest bearish FVG was formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area on the daily timeframe, so this zone acts as a POI for short positions over the coming weeks. On the 4?hour timeframe, Bitcoin is undergoing a second corrective wave, but short trades remain more attractive. Short-term long positions are acceptable; however, one should understand that the trend remains downward.
On the daily timeframe, the downtrend that began in August last year continues to form. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe the current downtrend is over, as there are no signs of its completion in either Bitcoin or Ethereum. At present, a new corrective wave is unfolding after a buy signal formed on the 4-hour timeframe in the last bullish FVG. Local bullish patterns on the 4-hour timeframe can be traded. On the daily timeframe, we advise waiting for the correction to finish and for Bitcoin's bearish FVG to play out, rather than trading against the trend.
CHOCH is change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG is Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG stands for Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB means Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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