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The price test at 163.75 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential.
Yesterday, the dollar fell sharply while the yen rose, reacting to an unexpectedly dovish outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank kept rates unchanged, while a considerable portion of players had anticipated a hike. The voting added to the contradictions, with the pause being passed by a vote of nine to three, although Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan demanded immediate tightening. However, the market focused on the final, more dovish verdict. The Japanese yen strengthened in response. The drop in US yields narrowed the interest-rate gap with Japan, making the yen more attractive and driving the USD/JPY pair lower. This decline shifted the focus away from currency intervention, as an excessively rapid weakening of the yen typically forces the Bank of Japan to enter the market, whereas strengthening the national currency mitigates this threat and reduces the likelihood of government intervention.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily implement scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 163.68 (the green line on the chart), with a growth target at 164.02 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 164.02, I plan to exit my long positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 163.46 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 163.68 and 164.02 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 163.46 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 163.13, where I intend to exit the short position and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers could return at any moment; it only takes a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 163.68, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 163.46 and 163.13 can be expected.
Important: New traders in the Forex market should make decisions about market entry very cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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