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The test of the 1.1442 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For the opposite reason, I also chose not to open a long position at 1.1462.
A stronger-than-expected eurozone economic report set the tone for today's trading and provided solid support for the euro. Instead of the modest growth markets had anticipated, Eurostat reported that eurozone GDP expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter, exceeding the 0.2% forecast and accelerating from flat growth in the first quarter. Sentiment also received additional support from Germany's GDP data, which were released alongside the eurozone figures.
GDP is a key indicator of economic performance because it reflects the actual pace of economic growth. When GDP exceeds expectations, it is generally viewed by the market as a positive signal for the national currency. That is precisely why today's upside surprise supported the euro.
The euro will head into the U.S. session awaiting a series of key U.S. economic reports that could reshape market sentiment. Investors will focus on second-quarter GDP, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and personal income and spending data. The Core PCE Price Index is particularly important because it is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and plays a significant role in shaping interest rate expectations. The GDP and consumer data will provide additional insight into the strength of the U.S. economy.
The outlook for the euro is straightforward. Only exceptionally strong U.S. data are likely to revive demand for the dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures would likely extend the dollar's recent weakness and provide further support for the euro. Given that the U.S. dollar has been under pressure recently, markets will pay close attention to any deviation from expectations, and volatility could increase during the second half of the day.
As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Today, consider buying the euro if the price reaches 1.1487 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1529. I plan to exit long positions at 1.1529 and may also consider opening short positions from that level, targeting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. The euro is likely to strengthen today if the U.S. economic data come in weaker than expected.
Important: Before entering a long position, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.
I also plan to buy the euro if the 1.1461 level is tested twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger a bullish reversal. In that case, the upside targets would be 1.1487 and 1.1529.
I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1461 (red line on the chart). The downward target is 1.1422, where I intend to close short positions and consider opening long positions, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is likely to return if the U.S. economic data are stronger than expected.
Important: Before entering a short position, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.
I also plan to sell the euro if the 1.1487 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a bearish reversal. In that case, the downside targets would be 1.1461 and 1.1422.
Beginner Forex traders should exercise caution when making trading decisions. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major economic releases to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during high-impact news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss protection can quickly result in substantial losses, particularly when using large position sizes without proper risk management.
Finally, remember that successful trading requires a clear and well-defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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