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The price test at 1.1545 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.
A strong US business activity report yesterday set the tone for trading, although its signal was not as unambiguous as it first appeared. Services accelerated in the US, and the composite PMI rose to 54.5. However, the dollar was disappointed by the modest ADP report, which showed 44,000 jobs.
Today, the euro enters the first half of the day looking ahead to a block of European reports, on which its further dynamics largely depend. In the morning, data will be released on Italy's industrial production, German industrial orders and eurozone retail sales. Orders in German industry are especially indicative, as they signal in advance the bloc's largest economy's future activity. At the same time, retail sales characterize consumer demand, and Italy's production complements the picture of the real sector. The outlook for the single currency is cautious. Disappointing figures will quickly renew pressure on the euro, since economic weakness will weaken the case for a hawkish European Central Bank and deprive the currency of support. In that case, the EUR/USD pair risks moving down by the end of the European session.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: today you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1556 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 1.1581. At 1.1581, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect euro growth only after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1543 price while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. One can expect a rise to the corresponding levels of 1.1556 and 1.1581.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1543 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1522, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today in case of poor data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1556 price while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. One can expect a decline to the corresponding levels of 1.1543 and 1.1522.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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