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The wave structure remains bearish, strange as that may sound. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break above the previous peak. Thus, the bears still hold the initiative in the market, although they may lose it in the near future. In my view, the 2026 bearish impulse has already been completed, and only geopolitical developments could prevent the bulls from continuing their advance. The geopolitical backdrop remains mixed.
The news flow on Wednesday was supportive of further bullish attempts, but buyers lacked sufficient momentum to produce a strong rally. Several U.S. labor market reports released this week have already shown relatively weak results. Let me remind you that another strengthening of the U.S. dollar will become highly likely in two scenarios: if negotiations in the Middle East once again end in failure, or if expectations of further FOMC monetary policy tightening increase rather than decline. Donald Trump said today that an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as today, although he made the same statement yesterday. In reality, the United States is not directly participating in the negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz; the talks are being conducted by Iran and Oman. Therefore, if no agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. While this alone is unlikely to trigger a significant rally in the U.S. dollar, the failure of the negotiations could become the starting point for a new escalation of the military conflict between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that if Tehran rejects the agreement, Washington will launch new strikes.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair has returned to the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. A rebound from this zone would once again allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409. Consolidation above the 1.3467–1.3482 level would allow traders to expect continued growth toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at 1.3538. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculative traders decreased by 2,824, while the number of Short positions increased by 6,429. The gap between Long and Short positions now stands at approximately 61,000 versus 126,000. The gap, along with the bears' advantage, continues to narrow gradually. Previously, the dominance of the bears was unquestionable, but the changing news backdrop has made that dominance less certain.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. However, in the near term, developments will depend less on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, and more on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had meaningfully begun. Moreover, there is no guarantee that they will resume anytime soon.
Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
United States
The economic calendar for August 6 contains only two releases, which I do not consider particularly important. As a result, the impact of the economic data on market sentiment on Thursday is likely to be limited or absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Short positions may be considered today if the pair closes below the 1.3454–1.3458 level on the hourly chart, with downside targets at 1.3397 and 1.3348. Long positions may be considered following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with a target at 1.3526–1.3557.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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