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The GBP/USD currency pair also showed no interesting movements on Thursday. Throughout the day, there were no significant events or publications in either the UK or the US for the market to react to. As such, another day of low volatility was not surprising. Since the beginning of the week, the market has been closely watching US labor market and unemployment data, as these will determine the fate of the Fed's key interest rate. It was predictable that only the Non-Farm Payrolls and inflation figures would matter at this time. Of course, this will not always be the case, but it is currently. The geopolitical backdrop also fails to engage traders right now, as nothing interesting is happening. Traders read daily statements from Donald Trump about the imminent agreement regarding Iran, without even delving into the specifics of what this deal entails. We believe that the British pound and the euro should continue to move higher, driven by global fundamental and technical factors. However, if macroeconomic data in the US are poor today, it will be much easier for European currencies to rise.
From a technical perspective, the British pound continues to trend higher on the hourly timeframe. It's worth recalling that, in the long term, the pair is in a flat consolidation phase, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. After touching the lower boundary of the range, there is now a logical movement toward the upper boundary, which may continue for several more weeks.
In the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Thursday. The price opened the day in the 1.3453-1.3480 range and closed there as well. Throughout the day, it did not leave this 30-pip range. Essentially, there were no movements in the GBP/USD pair yesterday.
COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have been dominant in the market for several months with short positions. The net position is negative despite a sustained long-term upward trend. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict continues. Geopolitics may support demand for the US dollar in the near future. However, we wouldn't expect a significant decline in the pair until we see a solid break below the trend line.
In the long term, the dollar is likely to continue declining due to Donald Trump's policies, which is evident on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim to weaken the US currency both directly and indirectly. The long-term upward trend remains evident, as shown by the trend line. The price recently reached this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated July 28), the "Non-commercial" group closed 2,800 BUY contracts and opened 6,400 SELL contracts. This leads to a further decrease of 9,200 contracts in the net position of non-commercial traders over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. In the long term, both European currencies still "look" higher and have been trading within sideways channels for a full year. This does not negate the upward trend initiated in 2022. We expect the British pound to continue rising in the coming weeks, but today's US labor market data will either support this scenario or put it on hold.
For August 7, we identify the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The lines of Senkou Span B (1.3388) and Kijun-sen (1.3460) may also provide trading signals. A stop-loss level is recommended at breakeven upon a 20-pip move in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Friday, there are no interesting or important events planned in the UK. In the US, the crucial reports on the labor market and unemployment will be published today. These reports will shape the American currency's near-term future. In the afternoon, market volatility could be very strong.
Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3388, as the price has settled below the 1.3465-1.3480 area. Long positions can be opened if the price consolidates above the 1.3465-1.3480 area, targeting 1.3588.
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