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Yesterday, stock indices ended lower. The S&P 500 fell by 1.01%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated by 0.85%.
Today, S&P 500 futures are little changed after the index declined for a second straight day, having reached a record high earlier this week. European stocks are set for a modest decline after closing at all-time highs, while Asian markets were largely flat.
The debt market reacted to the rise in oil prices as expected. Treasury futures edged lower as higher energy costs revived concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates elevated for longer. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.68% after rising seven basis points during the US session, while similar-maturity government bonds in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand also declined.
The source of nervousness around oil stems from specific details of the negotiated agreement that leaked to local media. According to these reports, Iran intends to restrict the passage of US and Israeli vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and demand compensation from countries it considers hostile before allowing them transit. This fundamentally diverges from market expectations of a full reopening of the waterway and explains why oil reversed higher despite official statements from both Washington and Tehran suggesting a deal was imminent.
A separate story this week has been the Japanese yen, which has given back nearly half of the gains achieved through currency intervention. The Japanese currency held steady around 158.35 per dollar, having earlier in the week risen to 155.23. This confirms our recent forecasts that even coordinated US-Japan interventions would prove temporary if fundamental factors, above all the interest rate differential, remain unchanged.
The main event in the coming hours remains the July US jobs report, and it is ahead of this release that markets have adopted a wait-and-see stance. Economists expect 80,000 new jobs following June's weaker-than-forecast gain of 57,000.
The context for this report has already been set by Thursday's data. The previous day's statistics underscored the resilience of the US labor market: initial jobless claims have remained below 200,000 for a third consecutive week. This leaves inflation, rather than employment, as the key metric for the Fed's September meeting.
Regarding the S&P 500 technical picture, buyers' main task today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,718. This would support gains and open the possibility of a push toward $7,737. Equally important for bulls will be maintaining control above $7,756, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend the $7,698 area. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,679 and open the path toward $7,667.
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