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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to rise above the 100-day SMA. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for more information on the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid inflation risks associated with fluctuations in oil prices. This, in turn, could affect the US dollar and provide significant momentum for the precious metal.
Ahead of the release of the key data, oil prices remain stable at a one-and-a-half-week high as hopes for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have diminished.
An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that this important waterway would not be reopened until the United States met Tehran's demands. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels in Yemen have increased attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, particularly vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. These developments are driving oil prices higher and increasing concerns about inflation.
Commerzbank analysts note that "hopes for a new agreement between Iran and the United States in the near future and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly fading" as the diplomatic situation hardened over the weekend. They emphasize that Iran has "set conditions for reopening the strait," including "demands for reparations," to which US President Trump responded with "new demands for compensation payments to victims of the conflict." According to Commerzbank experts, this escalation of reciprocal demands highlights the declining likelihood of an agreement to restore full transit through the key waterway, increasing risks in energy markets.
This offsets signs of weakening in the US labor market and strengthens the case for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders believe that the probability of the US central bank raising interest rates at least once by the end of the year is above 75%. The outlook remains supported by high US Treasury yields, which, together with persistent geopolitical uncertainty, support the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Amid the confrontation between the United States and Iran, Asia was shaken by North Korea's early launch of a ballistic missile.
This occurred several days before major joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. Meanwhile, Taiwan condemned planned naval exercises by China and an Indonesian warship off the island's eastern coast. This could also contribute to further strengthening of the US dollar and calls for caution before taking positions to continue gold's positive performance observed over the past week.
From a technical perspective, gold is showing resilience below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), while remaining below the dense resistance zone formed by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is located around the psychological level of $4,500. This indicates that bulls need to break through this zone to regain control of price movement.
On the other hand, important support is located at the 200-day EMA. However, as the oscillators remain positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market, the path of least resistance for gold remains to the upside. It should be noted, however, that the Relative Strength Index is close to the overbought zone, indicating that the bulls need consolidation.
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