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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued to decline toward the 1.3454–1.3458 support level on Thursday after rebounding from the 1.3526–1.3557 level. A rebound from the 1.3454–1.3458 level would favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward 1.3526–1.3557. Consolidation below the 1.3454–1.3458 level would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3397.
The situation has turned "bullish," but only because of a significant reduction in the size of the identifiable waves. The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave (which is not yet complete) broke the previous high. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, but their advantage is not clear-cut. Three unsuccessful attempts to break above the 1.3526–1.3557 level could allow the bears to take the initiative.
The fundamental backdrop did not support the British pound on Thursday. The UK economic growth report was not weaker than expected, but it was still weak. The economy grew by 1.2% year-on-year and by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. The industrial production report also gave the bulls little reason for optimism. Output declined by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.2% year-on-year. In both cases, traders had expected higher figures. Thus, the pound had little chance of rising in the first half of the day. In the second half of the day, the U.S. Producer Price Index was released, confirming a slowdown in both headline and core inflation in July. This put some pressure on the U.S. currency, as very few traders now expect the FOMC to tighten monetary policy in September. However, their expectations may change as early as September, when new U.S. inflation and labor-market reports are released. These figures will determine the Fed's interest-rate decision. At present, however, the base-case scenario is that monetary policy parameters will remain unchanged, which does not satisfy the bears.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538 and declined into the 1.3467–1.3482 level. A rebound from this zone would preserve the pound's chances of resuming its rise. Consolidation below this zone would allow traders to expect a bearish advance toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,446, while the number of Short positions increased by 13,446. The current gap between the number of Long and Short positions is effectively 55,000 versus 113,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still have a very large advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but it is now, as the fundamental backdrop has changed.
I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has repositioned itself toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had really begun. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
On August 14, the economic calendar contains two entries, neither of which is particularly significant. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Friday may be limited, including during the second half of the day.
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3526–1.3557 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3454–1.3458. These trades can remain open today. Buying opportunities may arise today after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3557.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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