18.08.202610:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Market stumbles over oil

Where there's smoke, there's fire — the market was reminded of that truth when Brent rose to nearly $92 a barrel, and Treasury yields followed suit.

Stocks joined Treasuries in the sell-off: inflation fears outweighed the enthusiasm around chips and AI. The decline hit most S&P 500 names, although some stories stood out — SanDisk gained 8.9%, Marvell rose 5.5%, and Micron 4.1% after reports of a 14-fold jump in Anthropic's Q2 revenue. Meanwhile, 30-year yields climbed to their highest levels since 2007, and the derivatives market priced in a new wave of monetary tightening.

The Middle East again played spoiler. President Donald Trump indicated he does not intend to extend the expired agreement with Iran and is in no hurry to defuse the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz — a route that carries a significant portion of global oil shipments. "Oil needs to come down, otherwise rates will stay too high, and the S&P 500 faces a correction," Interactive Brokers warns.

But it's not only geopolitics weighing on sentiment. Chinese retail sales rose just 0.6% in July — well below expectations and June's pace — adding to signs of cooling global demand. Recall that an earlier disappointing US retail sales report sparked market fear. Still, Goldman Sachs notes S&P 500 company revenues rose 6.4% — the best pace in five years excluding energy. Including revaluations of AI?startup stakes, overall profit growth approached 50%.

In reality, the market is balancing between two forces: rising oil ? higher inflation expectations ? tighter Fed rhetoric on one side, and strong corporate results fueling global risk appetite on the other. The minutes of the last Fed meeting, due August 18, could be the card that tips the scales. Investors are in wait-and-see mode: there are only a few days left until the symbolic central?bank gathering in Jackson Hole, and the government bond market is already signaling growing concern about US fiscal discipline.

Nvidia's report next week can either extend the tech inertia or spark the collapse of an expectations?built house of cards. Risks appear roughly balanced, and time will tell who is right.

Will the market withstand simultaneous pressure from oil, Treasury yields, and geopolitics? Or will the tales of a "hard landing" again prove premature?

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 is fighting for fair value at 7,745. A rebound would allow adding to longs; a drop below that level would be a trigger for short?term selling.