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US equity indexes closed higher last Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.43%, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.43%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 0.98%.
Global indexes began a key week for markets on the back foot, and AI expectations came under pressure ahead of tech giant earnings and the Fed's annual forum. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell more than 1%, with the technology sector leading losses. The Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.5%. Treasuries, however, strengthened as oil fell 1.3% to roughly $93.15 per barrel, helping push the 10-year yield down 2 basis points to 4.71%.
Samsung Electronics plunged 8.8% in Seoul after investors reacted poorly to plans to return up to 110 trillion won (about $80 billion) to shareholders. Alibaba tumbled 8.9% in Hong Kong after announcing plans to raise HK$80 billion through a share placement, and SoftBank fell 4.7% on news of a record retail bond issue of £1 trillion.
As I noted above, the market has been holding its breath ahead of two events that could set direction for months: Nvidia's report on Wednesday and Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole as Fed chair on Friday. Few will place large bets before the world's largest company reports and the new Fed chief signals whether his greater worry is inflation or the bond market.
Nvidia itself added to concerns by notifying customers of price increases, intensifying worries about the sustainability of the AI spending boom.
Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar weakened after last week's collapse of trade talks with the US, which prompted Washington to impose 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods; Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged retaliatory tariffs on the same scale from September 8. Gold continued last week's advance, trading near $4,640 an ounce, as the Treasury's bond buyback intervention revived concerns about dollar weakness and pushed investors toward alternatives.
According to a technical analysis of the S&P500, buyers' immediate task today is to clear resistance at $7,679. That will show strength and open the way to $7,698. Controlling $7,718 would further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, if risk appetite ebbs, buyers must defend $7,656. A break there will quickly push the index back to $7,633 and open the road to $7,607.
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