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Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro
The test of the 1.1670 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.
Obviously, the pair will spend the second half of the day awaiting a speech by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as there is no other significant US economic data on the calendar. The main focus will be the announced plan for the economic isolation of Iran, details of which Bessent is expected to disclose at a press conference. Given that he has already called on US allies to join the isolation campaign and threatened consequences for those cooperating with Tehran, the market is preparing for a possible escalation in geopolitical tensions. This creates a cautious backdrop for the single currency. Increased pressure on Iran could raise concerns over oil supplies and boost demand for the safe-haven US dollar, putting pressure on EUR/USD.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1671 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1686. At 1.1686, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro's upward potential today can be considered only if the US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1660 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1671 and 1.1686 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1660 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1647, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1671 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1660 and 1.1647 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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