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Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3634 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming that this was an appropriate entry point for a short position on the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.
In the second half of the day, the pound's direction will be influenced by a speech from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as no major US economic data is expected and the British currency has no significant domestic catalysts. The market is awaiting Bessent's plan for the economic isolation of Iran. He has already increased pressure on US allies by calling on them to join the campaign. Under these conditions, the pound is becoming increasingly dependent on external factors, as a tougher stance toward Iran threatens to push oil prices higher and increase demand for the safe-haven US dollar, which could weigh on GBP/USD, especially since the UK, as an energy importer, is vulnerable to higher commodity prices. Until the details of the plan are disclosed, the British currency is likely to follow overall risk sentiment, while the outcome will largely depend on the dollar and the severity of the announced measures.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3635 (the thin green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3648 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3648, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level. The pound's rise can be expected to continue the trend today only if the US takes a dovish stance. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3624 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3635 and 1.3648 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3624 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3605, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound is likely to return if the US takes a hawkish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3635 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3624 and 1.3605 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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