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The price test at 1.1671 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros; however, the pair did not see significant growth.
Scott Bessent's loud announcement of an "economic D-Day" against Iran barely moved the dollar, which added only slightly against the European currency. Formally, the measures appeared large-scale, with more than 60 organizations targeted by sanctions, affecting five key pillars of the regime: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Nevertheless, the market evaluated not the loudness of the statements but their practical substance, which proved much more modest. A key nuance was that China, the primary buyer of Iranian oil, was not named at all, and when asked about cutting off Chinese banks, Bessent gave a vague response, referring to quiet diplomacy. For the euro, such restraint translated into calmness. The absence of immediate measures did not trigger a flight to safe-haven assets, allowing the EUR/USD pair to maintain its position, as the dollar had no reason to grow with confidence.
Today, the euro enters the first half of the day with an eye on a significant block of German data, with the key report being Germany's second-quarter GDP, supplemented by the Ifo business climate indicators. The GDP figure will indicate how confidently the largest economy in the bloc has grown, while the Ifo indices, which reflect business assessments of current conditions and prospects, will help understand whether optimism persists. Since Germany remains the core of the Eurozone, these releases serve as a barometer for the entire region. For the euro, the picture is favorable if the data is strong. Good figures will likely restore demand for the euro, bolstering confidence in the economy's resilience and supporting expectations of a hawkish European Central Bank policy, which could help the EUR/USD pair resume its upward movement.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1663 (green line on the chart), with a growth target of 1.1686. At 1.1686, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the euro to rise today in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1652 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1663 and 1.1686.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros after it breaks below 1.1652 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1634, where I plan to exit short positions and buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1663, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1652 and 1.1634.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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