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The price test at 1.3635 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.3648.
Scott Bessent's announced "economic D-Day" against Iran turned out to be much louder than its market effect. On paper, the measures were impressive, with sanctions against over 60 organizations and Trump personally urging world leaders to cut ties with Tehran. However, traders responded with caution, identifying more rhetoric than real pressure in the announcement. Against this backdrop, the British pound held its ground, as the weak impact of the announcement did not give the dollar a reason for confident growth.
Today's absence of data from the UK leaves the pound without its own drivers, placing it at the mercy of external forces. Under favorable conditions, buyers retain the ability to maintain the initiative, and with support from a weakening dollar, they may even continue the growth of GBP/USD.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching an entry point around 1.3635 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to the level of 1.3661 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3661, I plan to exit long positions and sell immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the pound to rise today, continuing the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3620, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3635 and 1.3661.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.3620 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3596, where I plan to exit short positions and buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from that level). Only bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3635, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3620 and 1.3596.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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