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Market activity has noticeably decreased. Participants are focused on the publication of the PCE index today and Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole at the end of this week.
Let's start with the publication of the PCE index report. According to the forecast, it is expected that the overall value of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will slow its annual growth rate from 3.7% to 3.6%. Conversely, its core component is expected to maintain a growth rate of 3.3%. On a monthly basis, both indicator values are expected to show an upward trend. In quarterly terms, the overall PCE is expected to rise to 5.1% from 4.6%, while core PCE is projected to decline from 4.4% to 3.4%. It is also forecasted that personal spending in July will drop to 0.1% from 0.3%, while incomes will hold steady at 0.2%. Overall, inflation figures are expected to show ambiguous dynamics.
Will the markets in general, and the dollar in particular, react to this news?
Yes, some short-term dynamics can be expected. However, the question is, what kind of dynamics will it be? Most likely, if the report shows the projected values, a slight weakening of the dollar is expected in the Forex market. However, because market players are focused on the content of Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, this movement will likely be limited. It can be assumed that even if the figures generally show some strengthening of inflationary pressure, the reaction will still be contained.
Considering this, I believe that the overall movement in the currency market today and leading up to Warsh's speech will be subdued, precisely because of the high expectations among market participants regarding the content of the Federal Reserve chair's address at Jackson Hole.
Should we expect an increase in the price of gold and silver against the backdrop of all these events? I believe so. Recently, these metals have been supported not only by the weakening of the dollar but primarily by the stabilization of crude oil prices, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions worldwide due to the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern conflicts.
The pair is trading above 1.1650. It may rise to 1.1785 during Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. The entry point for buying could be at 1.1683, with a stop-loss at 1.1612.
The pair is trading around 0.7180. It may rise to 0.7260 during Warsh's speech. The entry point for buying could be at 0.7193, with a stop-loss at 0.7133.
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