26.08.202610:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Minus 8% for the Week: The Oil Market Begins to Believe in an Imminent Peace

Brent has fallen below $87 a barrel, decreasing for the third consecutive day and bringing weekly losses to about 8%, while WTI is trading around $81.

The sharp decline in prices is attributed to negotiations between Iran and Oman over a so-called temporary framework agreement to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Omani counterpart, Badr Albusaidi, discussed the initiative to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor, as reported by Oman News Agency.

Interestingly, the market has completely ignored new U.S. sanctions against Tehran. Recall that earlier this week, Scott Bessent announced measures against more than 60 entities as part of a campaign he labeled "Economic Day D." However, Washington did not dare to impose harsher measures against Iran's trading partners, including China, the main buyer of Iranian oil, and traders interpreted this as a sign of restraint rather than escalation.

The drop in oil prices indicates that traders are seriously pricing in a peace agreement. Given that some oil still passes through the strait, Iran and the U.S. are likely in a new phase of de-escalation, leaning toward peace rather than war.

Technical consultations between Iran and Oman are expected to resume shortly to agree on a permanent maritime corridor, the future management of the strait, and mechanisms for information exchange, traffic management, and the provision of relevant maritime and security services.

The most convincing signal of de-escalation has been practical action rather than statements. According to media reports, the U.S. is preparing to return diplomats to Middle Eastern embassies that were evacuated before and during the war, signaling that Washington does not expect a resurgence of full-scale conflict.

The fundamental picture also plays against prices. The American Petroleum Institute reported a rise in U.S. oil inventories by 4.2 million barrels last week, and if official data confirms this, it will mark the fourth consecutive weekly increase.

Additionally, since the beginning of the year, futures are still up more than 40%, as the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has limited supplies from the resource-rich Persian Gulf, approaches the six-month mark.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at $81.53. This will allow them to target $84.39, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The most distant target will be around $86.67. In the event of an oil decline, bears will attempt to take control over $78.70. If this is achieved, a breakout below this range will deal a serious blow to bull positions, pushing oil down to a low of $76.30 with a prospect of reaching $73.79.