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The price test at 1.3583 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair nearly reached the target level of 1.3602.
The mixed nature of U.S. data put slight pressure on the dollar, but it was enough for a small decline against the pound. The labor market appeared robust, with initial jobless claims dropping to 203,000 for the week ending August 22, down from 229,000 a year ago, and the number of claimants considerably lower than last year. The largest declines came from Michigan and California, and no state is connected to the extended unemployment benefits program, highlighting the strength of employment. However, external trade sharply dampened sentiment. The goods deficit soared to $118.8 billion, and the increase in imports amid falling exports creates a headwind for GDP in the third quarter, as imports are deducted in its calculation. Filling inventories added uncertainty, leaving open the question of whether companies are stockpiling in anticipation of future demand or if demand has already dwindled.
The British pound took advantage of the dollar's slight weakening and strengthened slightly against it. However, today's absence of fundamental reports from the UK in the first half of the day leaves the pound without its own drivers. Without fresh figures, traders will have no reason to reconsider their positions, and these indicators usually govern their expectations. When there is no data, the pound becomes dependent on external forces, and the overall sentiment around the dollar will remain the primary guide. Additionally, volatility is sure to remain at a rather low level, especially ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. In anticipation of such an important event, market participants tend to refrain from active actions, waiting for signals about the Fed's future course.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.3595 (the green line on the chart) with the aim of rising to the level of 1.3615 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3615, I plan to exit the market and also sell the pound in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the pound to rise today, in line with the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3582, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3595 and 1.3615.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3582 level (the red line on the chart) is updated, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3560, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from that level). Only bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3595, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.3582 and 1.3560.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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