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The price test at 159.40 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 15 pips.
The dollar slightly retreated amid mixed U.S. data, which came out ahead of Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. The labor market confirmed its strength, as initial jobless claims dropped to 203,000. Still, external trade presented an unpleasant surprise, with the goods deficit rising to $118.8 billion and a surge in imports. This increase in imports is deducted when calculating GDP and poses a risk of slowing the economy in the third quarter. It was this duality that determined the dollar's restrained decline. For the yen, the slight weakening of the dollar provided some support, as concerning signals from trade lessened the dollar's strength against the backdrop of a much more cautious Bank of Japan. The USD/JPY pair declined slightly, reflecting reduced demand for the dollar, although the strong U.S. labor market contained the move.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 159.60 (the green line on the chart) with the aim of rising to the level of 159.96 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 159.96, I plan to exit the long positions and sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 159.46, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 159.60 and 159.96.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 159.46 (the red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.20, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from that level. Bears will return at any moment; it only requires a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 159.60 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 159.46 and 159.20.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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