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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued to decline on Friday and reached the 1.3526 level. A rebound from this level would allow for a reversal in favor of the pound and a recovery toward 1.3556. Consolidation above the 100.0% Fibonacci level would allow for a stronger rise toward the 1.3633–1.3641 resistance level and a full recovery of the pound. Consolidation below 1.3526 would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3489.
The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken below the previous low. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, and their advantage is strengthening day by day. The bullish trend can only be considered broken after the low of the latest completed wave is breached, i.e., below 1.3414, or after two downward waves have formed.
The fundamental backdrop on Friday supported the bears, but the situation is not as straightforward as it may seem. The annual revision of the Nonfarm Payrolls data was negative. The number of jobs was revised down by 79,000. I see nothing positive for the dollar in this aspect of the key report. Kevin Warsh's stance can indeed be considered hawkish, but I would like to point out that the FOMC Chair's stance has remained hawkish for several months, while the FOMC has still been unable to decide on monetary policy tightening. Thus, the chances of a policy tightening in September increased on Friday, but I still would not be too confident about it. It is likely that the dollar would not have risen at all without Warsh's speech. If the Nonfarm Payrolls figure had been even worse, Kevin Warsh would not have been able to offset the negative impact. Thus, the dollar benefited as much as possible from Friday's developments. The bears now need to build on this advantage, but doing so will be very difficult. A new Nonfarm Payrolls report for August will be released this week, and the forecasts are once again disappointing.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD declined to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and a resumption of growth within the upward trend channel toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3657. Consolidation below 1.3538 would allow for expectations of a further decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3467. No new emerging divergences are currently observed.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 16,269, while the number of Short positions increased by 6,220. The current gap between the number of Long and Short positions is essentially as follows: 93,000 versus 1.382 million. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, although the bears still retain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestioned, but this is now less certain because the fundamental backdrop has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. There is no guarantee that they will resume in the near term. The Fed's stance on monetary policy remains contradictory.
On August 31, the economic events calendar contains no notable releases. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.
Sell trades were possible on consolidation below the 1.3633–1.3641 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3556 and 1.3526. Both targets were reached. New sell trades are possible on a rebound from 1.3556 or on a close below 1.3526. Buy trades were possible on a rebound from 1.3526 or on a close above 1.3556, with a target of 1.3633–1.3641.
The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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