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The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Tuesday as part of a new bearish trend. Last Friday, under pressure from Kevin Warsh and in direct contradiction to the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report, the British pound fell below the trend line and the Ichimoku indicator lines. Therefore, the pair may continue to decline based on technical grounds. For instance, there was no reason for a new decline yesterday, as both American reports (ISM and JOLTS) showed weaker-than-expected values. However, the dollar continues to strengthen, and the main concern is avoiding a new, unfounded dollar trend.
Geopolitics has once again worsened this week. Iran announced a military operation in the region, targeting U.S. military bases as well as various facilities on the territory of U.S. allies. Thus, it seems that a new escalation of the conflict is on the horizon, which could support the American currency in the near term. However, it is still too early to say that war has resumed, and geopolitical factors cannot sustain the dollar for years and decades to come.
From a technical standpoint, the British pound has begun to form a downward trend, but this week much will depend on American data regarding the labor market, unemployment, and business activity. Therefore, a decline in the pair can be anticipated, but one should not overlook that the American economy and labor market have shown rather negative figures in recent months.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, no trading signals were formed, leaving traders with no grounds to open positions.
COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with sell positions for several consecutive months. The net position is negative, despite the long-term upward trend being maintained. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for the dollar was quite high in the first half of 2026. The war is formally over, but the conflict continues. Only geopolitics can currently support the U.S. dollar. However, until there is a consolidation below the trend line, we would not expect a significant decline in the pair.
In the long term, the dollar is expected to continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. The long-term upward trend remains valid, as indicated by the trend line. The price has recently tested this line and rebounded from it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 25), the "Non-commercial" group opened 16,300 BUY contracts and 6,200 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 10,100 contracts during the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has begun to form a new downward trend. However, in the long term, the British pound continues to look upward. We still do not see serious reasons for a prolonged, sharp increase in the American currency, and this week, important reports from across the ocean could pose numerous challenges for the dollar. Nonetheless, the technical decline appears quite reasonable.
For September 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3596) and Kijun-sen (1.3551) may also provide sources of signals. It is recommended to set the stop-loss to break even after the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may move throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.
On Wednesday, no significant events or publications are scheduled in the UK, while the U.S. will release the ADP labor market report. Theoretically, the market may react to this report, but the likelihood of that is extremely low. Most likely, the market has already shifted its attention to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment figures, and may soon have to take the geopolitical factor into account again.
Today, traders may consider remaining in short positions targeting 1.3465-1.3480, as two sell signals formed in the area of 1.3574-1.3588 back on Friday, and the trend has shifted downward. Long positions can be opened today in the event of a rebound from the area of 1.3465-1.3480, targeting 1.3573.
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