03.09.202609:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 3. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade review and tips for trading the European currency

The price test at 1.1580 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved well above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. The second test of 1.1580 prompted the implementation of Sell Scenario No. 2 for the euro, but the pair did not decline.

The weak ADP report undermined the dollar, as the US private sector created only 38,000 jobs in August, the worst result since January. The indicator serves as an early snapshot of the labor market ahead of official data, and its failure strengthened expectations of a softer Federal Reserve policy. The structure of the report only emphasized the weakness, since goods production went negative and almost the entire gain was provided by education and healthcare. The single currency took advantage of the dollar's weakness, and the EUR/USD pair moved higher.

Today the euro enters the first half of the day with a focus on a block of European data, including final services and composite PMIs, as well as the producer price index. PMI indices are leading indicators because they are the first to capture shifts in business sentiment, while producer prices help judge rising price pressure. Both indicators directly affect expectations for European Central Bank policy and, through that, the single currency's exchange rate. The outlook for the euro is favorable, as inflation in the region has already accelerated, and strong data will only reinforce hawkish expectations. A jump in producer prices together with a robust PMI can strengthen the single currency against the dollar, supporting the market's bet on an ECB rate hike on September 10.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought if the price reaches around 1.1603 (the green line on the chart), with a target to rise to 1.1622. At 1.1622, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. Growth in the euro can be expected only after very strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1590, with the MACD indicator in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1603 and 1.1622.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the level 1.1590 (the red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1570, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today with weak data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1603 while the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1590 and 1.1570.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.