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The EUR/USD pair declined for six days, but the bears' advance may now be over. Overall, it can be said with confidence that the bears truly attacked only last Friday, when FOMC President Kevin Warsh spoke first, followed by a revision of the annual Nonfarm Payrolls data. Neither of these events was unequivocally bearish, although the dollar's appreciation can be explained if one looks hard enough for a reason. As I wrote earlier, the Nonfarm Payrolls report could have been much worse than it ultimately turned out to be, while Warsh's speech contained some hawkish undertones. However, if we call things by their proper names and do not try to see white in black, I see no reason for the dollar to rise even on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a negative reading, while Kevin Warsh merely spoke about high inflation but did not promise to raise interest rates or take any specific measures directly in September. The U.S. dollar rose to the base of imbalance 21, and the pair's decline has stopped there for now. From here, everything will depend mainly on the U.S. labor-market and unemployment data due on Friday. And I do not expect anything positive from these reports.
Overall, the fundamental backdrop, in my view, continues to fully support the bulls. First, any chart clearly shows that the euro began its advance from relatively low levels, compared with its average price over the past year. This means that it still has room to rise. Second, the market continues to doubt that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, regardless of what statements Warsh makes. Third, U.S. economic data have recently brought nothing but disappointment. Fourth, geopolitics no longer supports the bears or the dollar. Fifth, the ECB may implement another monetary policy tightening this autumn. Sixth, the U.S. Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, reducing demand for the dollar. Seventh, a new trade war between the United States and Canada, and between the United States and China, could begin in the near future. Eighth, the U.S. labor market is contracting, which could put an end to Warsh's hawkish initiatives. Thus, I currently see not a single reason for a bearish advance.
The latest U.S. labor-market data showed weak readings, inflation is slowing, and GDP growth is losing momentum. These three factors make me doubt that the FOMC will raise rates not only in September but also by the end of the year. In my view, the bears' only opportunity at present lies in a new escalation in the Middle East.
The current technical picture points to the bullish momentum remaining intact. Price has completely filled the latest bullish imbalance 21 and has even touched the previous bullish imbalance 20. The combined reaction to these two patterns could bring the bulls back into the market and resume the upward move. The bears will gain technical grounds for an advance only if both patterns are invalidated. The euro will also have to save the pound, which does not have such a strong support zone.
The fundamental backdrop on Thursday had little impact on traders' sentiment, despite the release today of the important U.S. ISM Services PMI. However, the dollar began declining long before the report was published. Given that the unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls will be released tomorrow, I believe traders have begun preparing for these reports. And they do not expect anything good.
There are still a huge number of reasons for the bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I see no significant factors supporting the U.S. currency, despite the FOMC's formally hawkish stance. Geopolitics, which supported demand for the U.S. currency throughout much of the first half of 2026, is no longer doing so. The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, but there have been no new hostilities from either Iran or the United States.
On September 4, the economic calendar contains four releases, among which I cannot fail to highlight Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate—the two most important indicators. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Friday could be strong in the second half of the day.
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that paused for an entire year. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. From a long-term perspective, I would say that the pair is trading in a range. However, the range does not invalidate the broader bullish trend. Therefore, the bulls may well resume their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have an excellent support zone in the form of imbalance 20, where a new bullish signal may form. We have already seen a precise rebound from imbalance 21. I consider 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the targets for a new advance in the euro.
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