Zůstat 
Obchodní podmínky
Nástroje
The price test of 1.3551 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming the right entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair fell about 15 pips.
The pound traded calmly during the day. The absence of important US data kept the dollar in a narrow range, and other pairs moved cautiously with it. In my view, until meaningful drivers appear, GBP/USD will most likely continue to tread within tight boundaries. The market's attention is now focused on the eurozone and the upcoming European Central Bank decision, and then the US inflation report will come into focus — that report can restore direction to the dollar. I believe those events, not the current lull, will determine the pair's further fate, so I wouldn't rush to bet on a sustained breakout.
Recall that in recent days the pound has benefited from pressure on the dollar created by coordinated interventions from the US and the Bank of Japan, and I think that tailwind remains in place for now. With a calm backdrop, buyers still have a chance to hold initiative and probe the upper edge of the range again. Nevertheless, without domestic drivers, the pound's rise is fragile, so the approaching US inflation report is truly decisive for the pair.
For intraday, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point around 1.3565 (the green line on the chart) is reached, with a target to rise to 1.3592 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3592, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Expect pound growth today, but we are unlikely to see a strong bullish impulse. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if it tests 1.3549 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3565 and 1.3592.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3549 level (the red line on the chart) is breached, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3524, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Bad news will bring pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3565 when the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3549 and 1.3524.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
Díky analytickým přehledům společnosti InstaForex získáte plné povědomi o tržních trendech! Jako zákazníkovi společnosti InstaForex je Vám k dispozici velký počet bezplatných služeb umožňujících efektivní obchodování.
