10.09.202615:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Outflows eat only 4.4% of record three-week inflow

Bitcoin is trading around $78,000 after pulling back from $79,700 printed yesterday. The correction is confirmed by net outflows of $120.2 million, which brought cumulative losses over the first two sessions of the shortened holiday week to $166.8 million.

Wednesday's biggest outflow came from ARKB (ARK 21Shares) with $78 million, followed by GBTC (Grayscale) with $27.2 million and IBIT (BlackRock) with $19.5 million. The only fund in positive territory was MSBT (Morgan Stanley), which added $4.5 million — a win for Morgan Stanley, showing resilience amid broad negativity, but damaging to the image of larger rivals whose clients preferred to exit positions at this moment.

Wednesday extended Tuesday's $46.6 million outflow, making these two sessions the first back-to-back episode of outflows since the three-day outflow streak ended on August 14. Over the two days, GBTC lost $92.7 million, while ARKB and IBIT recorded net redemptions of $69.9 million and $8.8 million, respectively.

More interesting is the divergence between Bitcoin and other assets. Ether ETFs attracted $34.7 million on Wednesday after $24.3 million of outflows on Tuesday, leaving them up $10.4 million for the week. Solana ETFs also reversed, adding $11.2 million after a $0.7 million outflow.

The exception to this recovery was Hyperliquid ETFs, which lost $5.3 million on Wednesday after $13 million of outflows on Tuesday, bringing the category's total weekly outflow to $18.3 million.

In my view, this selective dynamic — outflows from Bitcoin alongside reversals into Ethereum and Solana — looks more like targeted profit-taking after a strong rally than a change in overall market sentiment. I expect that if Bitcoin holds above $78,000 in the remaining days of the shortened week, outflows from its funds will likely slow, following the reversals already seen in Ether and Solana.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $78,500, which would open a direct path to $80,200 and then to $81,900; breaking above $81,900 would signal attempts to resume a bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $77,200. A return below that area could quickly push BTC toward $75,300. The furthest downside target is around $72,800.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,523 opens a direct path to $2,573. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,624; breaking above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $2,454. A drop back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,385. The furthest downside target is around $2,320.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.