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The price test at 1.3517 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to buy the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.
The pound dipped on the US inflation report, but the release did not give a clear signal and remained frankly mixed. Headline CPI added 0.4% month-on-month and held at 3.4% year-on-year, while core inflation actually fell to 2.4% year-on-year — news for the doves. Hawks, however, will point to the monthly core rate accelerating to 0.3%, which annualizes to about 3.7%, and to notable price rises in gasoline, airfares and housing. In essence, only medical costs and auto insurance cooled, so I do not see broad cooling in prices, and this print only sharpened the hawk-vs-dove debate within the Federal Reserve.
From a technical standpoint, little has changed for sterling, which preserves the chance of remaining range-bound, so I do not expect a full-blown trend yet. No UK data is scheduled today, so the pound remains hostage to the external backdrop, and I expect muted volatility with continued range trading. In my view, the pair's real resolution will come at the Fed meeting on September 15–16; until then, I expect nervous but indecisive dynamics in GBP/USD.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if price reaches the entry point around 1.3517 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3548 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3548, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 pip move from that level). Expect sterling to rise only as part of a correction. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3497 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect moves to the opposite levels 1.3517 and 1.3548.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breach of 1.3497 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3464, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Bad news will restore pressure on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3517 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3497 and 1.3464.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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