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On Tuesday, USD/JPY continued to recover and traded above the round 155.00 level, up about 0.43% on the day. The pair is gradually clawing back losses after falling below 153.00 last week, largely driven by broad dollar strength.
Investors are preparing for monetary-policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Expectations of tightening on both sides of the Pacific draw attention to interest-rate differentials and can increase volatility in USD/JPY.
In the US, Fed-hike odds have strengthened following recently strong economic data. According to CME FedWatch, markets put roughly a 92% probability on a rate increase on Wednesday. A solid August employment report and recent inflation prints have reinforced confidence that the Fed will continue to tighten policy.
Private-sector employment data also support this upbeat tone. ADP NER Pulse shows that for the four weeks ending August 29, private employers added an average of 16.25k jobs per week, up from a previously revised 12.25k. The acceleration indicates persistent labor-market momentum and supports the US dollar.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Friday and may signal more active policy normalization. However, the yen faces headwinds from rising global oil prices, which increase import costs for this energy-dependent economy. That factor limits the yen's ability to benefit fully from BOJ-tightening expectations.
Nevertheless, several factors could continue to provide fundamental support for the yen: expectations of more aggressive BOJ tightening, a global unwinding of carry trades, and signs that Japanese investors are repatriating foreign assets. These dynamics could restrain further upside in USD/JPY despite the twin central-bank events.
Technically, the pair has broken above the round 155.00 level and the 9-day EMA. Having closed above that level, bulls face resistance near the round 156.00 mark. But with oscillators negative, bulls may lack momentum. Nearest support sits at 154.30, with the primary support being September's low. The table below shows Tuesday's percentage moves for the Japanese yen versus major currencies; the yen strengthened most versus the New Zealand dollar.
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